Here is how to prevent a violent aftermath to the US presidential elections

White House 2020

From advising world leaders, heads of multinational companies and humanitarian and international organizations, my career has involved identifying risks and helping humanitarian organizations and peace builders avoid worst case scenarios.

My professional assessment is that the US Presidential election in November is likely to lead to outbreaks of violence and potentially unparalleled protests across the country unless definitive peacebuilding plans are implemented in the coming weeks.

This assessment is based on several vulnerabilities.

US intelligence continues to highlight several countries, notably Russia and China, interfering in this election through a variety of disinformation tactics. While social media companies such as Facebook and Twitter remain vulnerable to exploitation and give rise to the possibility of key votes in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Nevada could be determined by foreign interference, which would provide both presidential candidates the opportunity to cry foul and declare an illegitimate election.

Meanwhile the country continues to grapple with the devastating COVID pandemic. Amid the importance of social distancing a sizeable proportion of Americans will vote by mail and election night is unlikely to herald a unanimous winner. Recent polls indicate that President Trump may fare better among those voting on the day and raises the potential for the president to declare victory on election night before all the votes are counted and then rely on his support among media outlets such as Fox News and Breitbart to legitimize his position. Such a scenario is likely to incite widespread protests and violence from a wide range of groups, with a minority likely to resort to violent tactics.

The election is also occurring at a time of heightened political volatility across the US. A combination of the country’s deep political divide between Democrats and Republicans, the impact of COVID-19 on citizen’s livelihoods and employment and the growth of domestic terrorist groups contributes to the potential for widespread disruption and violence. Based on recent months events, this might well include far-right terrorist attacks against prominent democratic figures and media outlets…